The Australian Government Actuary (AGA) has released its latest life tables based on 2016 census data and noted the improving life expectancy has slowed since 2011. In its estimates of life expectancy, the AGA adopts improvements based on both the 25- and 125-year trends to estimate the latest life expectancies.
Previously, the shorter 25-year trend showed a greater rate of improvement than the longer 125-year trend. However in its latest estimates, the 25-trend has not been borne out in the latest census at 2016.
This is primarily due to the mortality rates for those aged between 32 and 62 not being as consistently favourable with the expected trends:
As a result, the AGA has dropped the more favourable 25-year trend from its 2016 cohort estimates. Thus the life expectations for different cohorts of Australians using the 125-year trend only are now as follows:
Year of Birth
2016
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Males
87.1
87.5
88.4
89.2
89.9
90.5
The effects of improving mortality are clearly demonstrated in the AGA’s estimates of life expectancy – both with and without these improvements – as follows:
In summary, the overall pattern is one of continued improvement over time which means we are all living longer with implications for aged care needs, retirement policies and aged pension costs.